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India at USD 1 Trillion: Reasons to Cheer for NRIs
Monday, May 07, 2007

The weakening dollar against the rupee has played a minor role in getting India to the top trillion dollar economies of the world. The rupee has gained steadily against the dollar since 2002, and last week it touched the magic figure of Rs. 41, crossing the Rs. 41.26 figure of 1998.

Rates have come full circle since, from an average of Rs.43.05 in 1999 to Rs.44.94 in 2000, Rs. 47.18 in 2001 and up to Rs. 48.59 in 2002. The downturn started in 2006 when it touched an average of Rs. 46.58 in 2003, sliding to Rs.45.31 in 2004, Rs. 44.10 in 2005 and dipping to 43.21 in 2006.India's consistent performance over these years has enabled it to reach the 12 member trillion dollar club with a GDP of Rs. 41 trillion. The US leads with a GDP of USD 13.4 trillion, followed by Japan at USD 4.4 trillion.

The non-resident Indian is perceptibly proud of India's achievement, and foresees good returns on his investments. But, is he happy about the extra dollars he has to dole out for purchases in India? For the property that he wants to purchase in India, for the goodies that he wants to take back from India, and for his expenses during his visit to India - these would have him digging deeper into his pockets.

However, with the Indian stock market at a strategic USD 944 billion, and ready to leap to the trillion dollar mark, NRI investors dabbling in Indian stocks could well gain from the twin advantage of exchange rates and dividends. NRIs engaged in trade would benefit from exports to India, as demand will, in all probability, increase as Indian importers find the dollar more affordable.

The accelerated economy is, in any case, fertile ground for higher requirement for capital goods and niche products. Heavy equipment and consumables will see a rise in demand as the Indian importer has to shell out fewer rupees to the dollar.

And what does it spell for resident Indians? With mega acquisitions the flavour of the season, Indian corporates looking to take over overseas companies will be spending considerably less on the deals.

Moreover, with the Indian government's decision to allow Indians to invest upto USD 100,000 overseas, Indians can dabble in more foreign stocks than before. Visits abroad could see a slight jump too, as the rupee can stretch a little further.

Even purchasing property abroad will be easier on the Indian's pocket, given the Indian government's relaxed laws. And, as for India's foreign exchange drainers, crude oil and gold, the country will pay less than before. Gold would be cheaper in India, as compared to the US, so NRIs would, in all likelihood, make their jewellery purchases from India.

The NRI community achieved its own moment of glory by holding total assets of a trillion plus dollars last week - reason enough for resident and non-resident Indians to cheer!

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